It’s can difficult to accurately assess risks and variables. There can be many variables we are unaware of. Or there’s not enough data to determine them. (Although war has a long established history so that may not be applicable here. ) Eliminating personal bias is crucial for accurately measuring probability of success. For example, under estimating how much the advantage a defending country has in the terms of morale and motivation. I think Putin really underestimated those things in the Ukraine. Personal bias is why most scientific papers need to be peer reviewed.
2. Thank you for reminding me why I hate Algebra and all other mathematic related stuff.
This has been absolutely fascinating and thank you for posting. I have limited internet connection,and is there a printed version of your dissertation?
I don’t want to understand war. 😞
Two thoughts :
It’s can difficult to accurately assess risks and variables. There can be many variables we are unaware of. Or there’s not enough data to determine them. (Although war has a long established history so that may not be applicable here. ) Eliminating personal bias is crucial for accurately measuring probability of success. For example, under estimating how much the advantage a defending country has in the terms of morale and motivation. I think Putin really underestimated those things in the Ukraine. Personal bias is why most scientific papers need to be peer reviewed.
2. Thank you for reminding me why I hate Algebra and all other mathematic related stuff.
This has been absolutely fascinating and thank you for posting. I have limited internet connection,and is there a printed version of your dissertation?